Thanks for the crew of 13 that joined us for our 12th edition. I’m glad we made the last minute pivot to discuss what everyone is seeing from a forecasted sales/profit standpoint. Some very interesting conversation! Glad to hear that it’s not as bad as some are making it out to be or that it could be.
Summary Notes
- Economic check in (sales, profitability, forecasting)
- The most common answer on the direction of sales was a slight decrease, although some continue to experience single digit growth (just not quite at much as the original forecast)
- For many companies, June/July were the first months in years where they saw a decline
- Margins seems to be far outpacing the top line, with most experiencing profit growth, despite the pullback on sales
- Higher margin gas sales are doing well, while hard goods are down (large cap ex has slowed significantly)
- Is this the traditional summer slowdown, pre-election stagnation or something more going on?
- Customer base appears to be more spotty
- Large to mid-size / multi-state businesses are doing well, while the small companies appear to be hurting the most
- Some have noted their customers feeling the squeeze, which has resulted in more attention being paid to every line item on an invoice as opposed to simply sending in payment
- A formal budgeting process has not been applied by most on the call, with an informal process mainly staying amongst only key executives
- ITR has predicted solid years in 2025 and 2026, with a great depression still projected around 2030
- Some have used their service to map out a rolling 12/12, 3/12, while also using their indicators for forecasting and have found it extremely helpful
- Supply update
- Helium and CO2 have been much easier to get, especially the supply of CO2 in the Midwest
- The majors no longer seem to be interested in delivering anything less than a full tank
- Many have gone away from a consolidated or single source supply, pivoting to more of a diversified supply to maintain as much independence as possible
- The most common answer on the direction of sales was a slight decrease, although some continue to experience single digit growth (just not quite at much as the original forecast)
- Fleet technology
- Most common technology deployed
- GPS/Cameras – Samsara (other Lytx, Motive, GPS Insights, Geotab)
- Fleet management – Fleetio
- Driver/MVR Management – SambaSafety (other iiX)
- Very few use routing software, but there seemed to be a higher level of interest from the group
- Be leery of signing long-term contracts with technology vendors (beware of a new contract every time a new camera is purchased, for example)
- Insurance carriers are now expecting commercial trucks to at least have GPS that is monitored and are starting to expect cameras as well
- There’s risk to having cameras in the truck, but we’re of the opinion that the reward far outweighs the risk
- At some point in time, cameras may be required to purchase auto insurance in the industry
- Most common technology deployed
This “club” is intended for any welding & gas distributor acting in a financial role. Please join our next meeting for even more great conversation and insights.
Marsh/MMA acquisition of Horton Update
- I was asked on the call to provide an update and just realized that we got to talking about something else
- The transition has gone smoothly, we’re starting to get intertwined and connected in, which includes learning about some fun new tools we get to deploy, such as
- Benchmarking data and analytics
- Access to experts in anything we could think of
- Pretty cool webinars
- Stay tuned for more! Thanks for asking!
Upcoming webinars of potential interest
- 8/23: Cutting Costs and Enhancing Value: Employee Benefits Captives Explained
- 8/27: ESOP Exclusive Benefits Captive introduction
- 8/29: Driving toward zero (emissions) in the transportation industry and where we’re headed
Upcoming Meetings
- October 16th, 2024
- Accounting for physical asset inventory
- Branch performance review and metrics (placeholder)
- December 11th, 2024
As always, if there’s something on your mind or a topic that you’d like to suggest for our next agenda or future agenda, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
Tony Hopkins
Tony has also realized that talking a good game is not enough. The true mark of a professional is execution. Horton achieves this through a process which consistently delivers on promises made and holding themselves accountable. “Once a plan is established, we are committed to plan execution. Our team functions as an extension of our clients operations; we are just as invested in their success as our own – their goals are our goals,” says Tony.
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